Tropical Disturbance Being Downgraded, But Still Threat to Watch

Special Series: Micronesia Climate Watching

Photo and Video Sources: U.S. National Weather Service, Weather Forecast Office, Tiyan Guam

By Christopher Cottrell

June 17, 2026, Federated States of Micronesia__A weak tropical disturbance north-northeast of Chuuk is being downgraded as a weekend typhoon threat by the National Weather Services (NWS), Tiyan, Guam.

NOAA, NWS, FEMA, and governments in the Federated States of Micronesia, Guam and CNMI are closely monitoring this weather formation as reconstruction efforts continue for infrastructure damaged by Typhoon Sinlaku, with even heavy rains presenting setbacks and anything larger posing serious threats.

Assigned the name “Invest 92W” by NWS, as of Wednesday morning 5:41 am Chamorro Standard Time (UTC 10+), it is presently moving at 12 mph towards the Marianas with greater development in the next 24-hours, according to NWS, Tiyan, Guam.

This NWS forecast notes that, “92W is beginning to show better organization, including a central area of convection must north of the Low-Level Circulation Center (LLCC)…approaching the Mariannas sometime between Thursday and Friday evening.”  

It adds, “Latest model guidance are all in fairly good agreement that Invest 92W will remain fairly weak as it moves through the Marianas. Based on model guidance and latest satellite trends, 92W could move through as a disturbance, a tropical depression or possibly a tropical storm (least likely), strengthening more after moving west of the islands.”

A NWS statement Tuesday afternoon read, “While it remains uncertain as to whether 92W will pass through the region as a tropical disturbance or a tropical depression, the likelihood of a typhoon in the Marianas continues to diminish. A tropical storm in the Marianas remains a possibility.”

They recommend Guam and CNMI residents, “Keep aware of regional weather conditions and forecasts from NWS Guam; and for information from the Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense, and the CNMI Homeland Security & Emergency Management.”