Micronesia Sun Bright News from the Deep Pacific
Photo Sources: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
By Christopher Cottrell
June 5, 2026, Federated States of Micronesia__ The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Western North Pacific (WNP) Tropical Cyclone Outlook posted today portends “above-normal activity” for storms in FSM, Marshalls, Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands (CNMI) in the second half of 2026, particularly towards September to November.
The forecast suggests that Guam and CNMI could experience Tropical Cyclines at 37 MPH with a count seven; with as many as six in Chuuk state and as many as five in Yap and Pohnpei in the FSM, with upwards of four in the Marshall Islands at that same speed.
Typhoons at more than 74 MPH count tally as high as five in Guam and CNMI, with highs of four in Chuuk state, and three in Yap and Pohnpei in the FSM, it says.
According to a NOAA statement, “Above-normal activity is consistent with the anticipated shift to El Niño as supported by the latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) ENSO Diagnostics Discussion. This is likely to result in considerably more regional activity than seen in the past several years.”
It continues, “Additionally, an eastward shift of development allows TCs more time to intensify, resulting in a larger number of major typhoons (major typhoons are classified as categories 3, 4 and 5) that could impact the Marianas and western Micronesia.”
The outlook report further provides, “a general idea of how many tropical storms and/or typhoons could significantly affect a specific island or a group of islands across Micronesia, with direct or peripheral effects such as strong damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and/or storm surge/inundation. Although TC activity peaks around September-November for many regional locations, TCs occur throughout the year across the WNP. Therefore, there is no clearly defined ‘typhoon season’.”
Moreover, “The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University, Palisades, New York and NOAA indicate El Niño conditions will develop and continue to strengthen over the next several months.”
An August update on this outlook is expected, with developments tracked by NWS Weather Forecast Office Guam (WFO Guam), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo, Japan.
This outlook was put together by NOAA’s NWS WFO Guam, the OAR [Oceanic and Atmospheric Research], the Air Resources Laboratory, the NWS Pacific Region Headquarters in Pearl Harbor, HI, and Mr. Chip Guard of Tropical Weather Sciences.
